Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate claim they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
