Moving from Grudging Admiration to Unease: Moscow Considers the Ousting of Venezuela's Leader.

A shock assault on the capital in the dead of night, ending with the capture of the nation's leader. Within a day, the intervening power declares its intention to govern for an indefinite period.

That was the scenario Vladimir Putin envisaged his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in February 2022. Instead, it was Donald Trump who pulled it off in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned internationally, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally the Venezuelan president, who now faces trial in New York.

Public Fury, Private Calculations

Officially, Moscow's representatives have reacted with anger, condemning the attack as a blatant breach of global norms and a worrying development. But behind the official statements, there is a sense of grudging respect – and even jealousy – at the effectiveness of a coup that Russia once planned, but failed to execute due to a series of intelligence blunders and Ukraine's strong resistance.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” wrote the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: fast, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine Russia's top general expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

Such commentary have fueled a mood of introspection among pro-war voices, with some publicly wondering how Russia's promised blitzkrieg in Ukraine morphed into a protracted and deadly war.

A pro-Kremlin tech entrepreneur, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how audacious the US intervention seemed. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'special military operation,’” she stated.

Allies in Decline

For over twenty years, Venezuela worked to build a web of partners opposed to Washington – from Russia and China to Havana and Tehran – hoping to forging a alternative bloc able to challenge Washington.

Yet despite Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for the Caracas government as recently as late December, few serious analysts ever expected Moscow would intervene meaningfully.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, over the past year, seen other important partners lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – laying bare the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are profoundly awkward,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a close partner and fellow traveler, and the two leaders have longstanding ties, forcing Moscow into little choice but to voice condemnation. But offering any real assistance to a country so distant is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

Focus on the Main Front

There is also a deeper strategic consideration. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and keeping a productive dialogue with Trump on that front far outweighs the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are presently engaged with a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a broader geopolitical contest with a critical partner over what it sees as a secondary concern,” Lukyanov added.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries several tangible costs for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, US defense specialists could examine large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM air-defence systems delivered in 2013, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions in loans to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A greater immediate worry for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's enormous oilfields could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' secure Venezuela’s oilfields, more than half of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote Oleg Deripaska. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not exceed $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Still, some in Moscow see room for a grim silver lining. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could strike a decisive blow to the rules-based international order and usher in a more nakedly 19th-century-style world – one where might, rather than rules, determines results.

“Team Trump is ruthless and pragmatic in pursuing its national interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they openly admit this. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than ordinary justice.”