Starmer's Allies Launch 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly kicked off a concerted campaign to block Andy Burnham, the Labour Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a comeback to parliament. This action follows the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an impending by-election.
Major Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's ruling national executive committee (NEC) have reportedly suggested it would be highly challenging for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection procedure. This is primarily due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to avert any future challenge to Starmer's leadership.
The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the announcement of the MP's intended resignation, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.
Burnham's Ambitions and Internal Disquiet
Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that many MPs had encouraged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. However, allies of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against exaggerating the level of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would only return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then secure victory in the by-election against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
Efforts to Block Burnham
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already in progress, with the party's organisation being closely managed by senior aides of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential leadership challenges.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in party funding from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.
A number of sources also expressed concerns about Nigel Farage’s party potentially win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to stand. There is also speculation the body could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, one Burnham ally counselled against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The unions occupy a sizable number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to launch a significant campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the backing of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a requirement that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by a number of on the backbenches.
The resigning MP stated he was stepping down due to declining mental health, which had made it untenable for him to carry on in his role. He also remains subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.
